The latest annual report from the Boards of Trustees overseeing the Social Security and Medicare programs reveals mounting financial pressures, with significant trust fund depletion dates approaching and the programs projected to fall short of paying full benefits soon unless lawmakers act.
According to the 2025 Trustees Report, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund — one of the two main Social Security funds — is on track to pay full scheduled benefits only until 2033. After that, beneficiaries would receive just 77% of their scheduled payments. The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, which finances Medicare Part A, is projected to be depleted in 2033, three years earlier than previously forecast. At that point, only 89% of Medicare Part A benefits could be paid from incoming revenue.
The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund remains stable, with the ability to pay full scheduled benefits through at least 2099. If the OASI and DI funds were hypothetically combined, the overall Social Security program (OASDI) would be depleted by 2034 — one year sooner than last year’s report — with only 81% of scheduled benefits payable at that time.
The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund, which covers Medicare Parts B and D, is adequately financed into the indefinite future due to automatic adjustments in federal contributions and enrollee premiums. However, rapidly rising costs continue to put increasing pressure on beneficiaries and taxpayers.
Several key factors contributed to the worsening financial outlook:
The Social Security Fairness Act, enacted in January 2025, repealed provisions that previously reduced benefits for some public-sector retirees. This legislative change increased long-term benefit costs.
A delayed recovery in national fertility rates extended to 2050, pushing demographic costs higher.
A revised assumption that a smaller share of gross domestic product (GDP) will go to labor compensation reduced projected payroll tax revenues.
For Medicare’s HI Trust Fund, the worsened outlook is tied to unexpectedly high expenditures in 2024 and increased projected usage of hospital and hospice services.
As of the end of 2024, the OASI Trust Fund held $2.54 trillion in reserves, a decline of $103.2 billion from the previous year. In contrast, the DI and HI Trust Funds saw reserve increases, with DI reserves rising to $183.2 billion and HI reserves reaching $237.5 billion. The SMI Trust Fund declined slightly to $170.4 billion.
The Trustees warn that inaction could lead to across-the-board benefit reductions. To maintain solvency over the next 75 years, the OASI Trust Fund would require either a 3.95 percentage point increase in payroll taxes, a comparable reduction in benefits, or a combination of both. The HI Trust Fund faces a smaller but still pressing actuarial deficit of 0.42# of taxable payroll.
At the same time, Medicare’s share of the U.S. economy is growing faster than Social Security’s. In 2025, Medicare will cost approximately 3.9% of GDP, compared to 5.3% for Social Security. But by 2039, Medicare’s costs are expected to surpass those of Social Security and remain higher through at least 2099.
Public sentiment, however, reflects concern over cuts. A recent survey found that about half of U.S. adults believe that too little is being spent on Medicaid and food assistance programs, such as SNAP. Only about 2 in 10 respondents said Medicaid is overfunded, and one-quarter said the same about food assistance. Roughly 6 in 10 Americans said the government is not spending enough on Social Security, Medicare, or education.
Partisan divisions remain. While most Democrats believe too little is spent on these programs, Republicans are more likely to say the current levels are appropriate. Still, only about 1 in 10 Republicans said Medicare or Social Security receives too much funding, and about half of Republicans said too little is being spent on Social Security — compared with about 7 in 10 Democrats.
“At this point, any member of Congress without a plan to fix Social Security is shirking their duty to preserve the nation’s largest and most important government program,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told NPR.
“Any politician who doesn’t support increasing Social Security’s revenue is, by default, supporting benefit cuts,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works. “America is the wealthiest country in the history of the world, at the wealthiest moment in our history. That money can remain concentrated in the hands of billionaires, or it can go towards Social Security, enriching all of our lives.”
Proposals to raise the Social Security tax cap — currently set at $176,100 in annual income — have drawn renewed attention. Advocates argue that lifting the cap or taxing investment income would extend the program’s solvency well into the next century.
Meanwhile, congressional Republicans have offered alternative solutions, including raising the retirement age and modifying the benefits formula for younger workers.
The situation is compounded by recent staff reductions at the Social Security Administration, which has begun eliminating about 12% of its workforce. The cuts are leading to longer waiting times and reduced in-person services.
“Today’s report is a reminder that even as DOGE’s cuts to the Social Security Administration are wrecking Social Security’s customer service, they are doing nothing to improve its solvency,” Altman said. “Republicans have a plan to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is ‘committing’ to seeing through Donald Trump’s dangerous threat to gut Americans’ hard-earned benefits and access to health care.
“No matter how the GOP dresses it up, the reality is they’re jumping at the opportunity to rip away critical programs so they can further line billionaires’ pockets,” Altman declared.
There are two categories of spending in the federal government, Johnson contended.
“Mandatory spending is on the programs Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid … it’s 73, 74% of spending is on autopilot, which is frightening,” he claimed. “OK, that’s something we need to address, and we have a plan in place to do so. I am committing that we will do that.”
At Trump’s urging, House Republicans have already passed legislation slashing Medicaid to fund tax cuts for high-income earners. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that proposed cuts would result in over 13.7 million people losing health insurance coverage due to Medicaid rollbacks and restrictions on ACA marketplace subsidies.
Trustees Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor), and Frank J. Bisignano (Commissioner of Social Security) signed off on the findings, urging lawmakers to act.
“Implementing changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share in the needed revenue increases or reductions in scheduled benefits,” the trustees wrote.
Source: Published without changes from Washington Informer Newspaper
