{"id":7600,"date":"2026-05-09T09:33:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T09:33:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africanamericanvoice.net\/?p=7600"},"modified":"2026-07-02T09:37:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:37:33","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-closure-has-wreaked-irreversible-global-damage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/africanamericanvoice.net\/?p=7600","title":{"rendered":"Strait of Hormuz Closure Has Wreaked Irreversible Global Damage"},"content":{"rendered":"

By<\/span>Sunita Sohrabji<\/a><\/p>\n

The economic damage from the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz may take years to undo, both in the US and globally, predict analysts.<\/p>\n

The economic toll is likely to exacerbate conditions in countries that are already food insecure.<\/p>\n

Iran first closed the Strait \u2014 through which 20% of the world\u2019s oil flows, along with fertilizers, aluminum, and some consumer goods \u2014 on March 4, severely restricting the passage of commercial shipping vessels. The move came amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war, which has reached its 7th week.<\/p>\n

The US then began a naval blockade in the region April 13. On April 17, Iran announced the Strait was \u201ccompletely open,\u201d but then closed it again a day later, saying it would not reopen the Strait until the US ended its naval blockade. Trump fired back, accusing Iran of attempting to blackmail the US. Last week, he wrote a blistering post on Truth Social.<\/p>\n

Battle lines drawn<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u201cOpen the strait, you crazy bastards, or you\u2019ll be living in hell,\u201d wrote the President, threatening to eviscerate Iran\u2019s power plants and bridges if the country did not capitulate.<\/p>\n

Both Iran and the US are firing on ships attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz. Iran April 19 fired at two Indian ships, which were carrying Iranian oil. The US subsequently shot at an Iranian cargo vessel.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s rationale for getting into a war unpopular with the majority of the American public is to rid Iran\u2019s capability of building a nuclear weapon. Iran has 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium at 60%, which could easily be converted to weapons grade. About 25 kilograms of HEU are sufficient to make a nuclear weapon, according to the\u00a0Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.<\/a><\/p>\n

Oil prices immediately dropped about 10-11% after Iran\u2019s brief reopening of the Strait. Oil prices had surged to $111 per barrel as war broke out. As of press time April 20, the price of crude oil hovers at $96 per barrel, a $29 rise over the past year.<\/p>\n

Damage will take years to undo<\/strong><\/h2>\n

But even if oil prices stay low, many countries will continue to face harmful impacts, which may be irreversible. \u201cEven if oil prices decline now, some of the damage to the poorest countries in the world and to the most vulnerable populations in the world has already been done. We may not be able to undo it quickly,\u201d said Dr. Anil Deolalikar, professor of economics at UC Riverside, speaking at an April 17 American Community Media news briefing.<\/p>\n

The closure of the Strait comes at a critical time for farmers across the globe, occurring during planting season. Fertilizer prices jumped by 20-30%, amid shortages. \u201cAs farmers cut back throughout the world on planting, we will see a delayed impact on food crop harvests later on in the year as the agricultural cycle moves on,\u201d said Deolalikar, noting that the impact would hit hardest in countries already facing food insecurity.<\/p>\n

For millions of small farmers, particularly in developing economies, the consequences are existential. \u201cMany of them live literally from paycheck to paycheck,\u201d Deolalikar said. \u201cTheir finances depend quite a bit on stable input prices, and this has really increased the debt load on farmers,\u201d he said, predicting there would be more farmer suicides in the year ahead.<\/p>\n

Oil volatility will remain high<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Ryan Nunn, director of research at the Budget Lab at Yale, described the current moment as one of the\u00a0sharpest oil shocks<\/a>\u00a0in decades.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen roughly a $35 per barrel increase since before the conflict,\u201d Nunn said. \u201cIf you stack that against other monthly changes, this is one of the largest increases we\u2019ve experienced over the last 50 years,\u201d he said, noting that volatility will remain high and supply chains will take significant time to normalize, even if the Strait is immediately reopened.<\/p>\n

For consumers, the effects are already visible. \u201cWhen oil prices go up, gas prices go up. But more broadly, you see inflation: prices will rise while economic activity declines,\u201d Nunn explained.<\/p>\n

Lower income households hit hardest<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u201cOne year from now, we could expect to see a little less than a half percent rise in the core price level, that\u2019s the level that excludes energy, and a little less than a half percent fall in economic activity, in GDP.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cNow that might sound small, but you do want to consider that GDP is roughly $30 trillion in the US. So that means about $115 billion less in output in a year,\u201d explained Nunn.<\/p>\n

And the burden is not evenly shared. \u201cThis kind of inflationary shock hits lower income households especially hard,\u201d said Nunn. Lower income households are hit harder by price increases since they tend to spend a greater portion of their budgets on goods, have fewer options to trade down to cheaper alternatives and have little to no savings to absorb the shock, he explained.<\/p>\n

Even if oil prices continue to drop, consumers are unlikely to see it immediately. \u201cThe linkages between oil prices and what folks see at the pump are not instantaneous,\u201d he cautioned. \u201cHistorically, oil price shocks take a while to subside: on average about one and a half years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s commitment to sovereignty<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Dr. William Beeman, professor emeritus of anthropology at the University of Minnesota, says the disruption in supply chains caused by the closure and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rooted in a\u00a0long-standing commitment to sovereignty<\/a>\u00a0shaped by history.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran has been dominated by foreign powers for almost 200 years and Iranians are extremely sensitive to the fact that foreign powers have intervened again and again and again in their internal affairs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

That historical experience continues to shape the government\u2019s behavior today. \u201cIran is doing everything to protect the revolution and the ideals of the revolution, and also to protect its national sovereignty,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s willing to go to extreme lengths in order to be able to do this.\u201d<\/p>\n

US coercion is ineffective<\/strong><\/h2>\n

External pressure from the US or Israel is unlikely to change that goal. \u201cNo amount of economic coercion, no amount of military coercion is going to deter the Iranian government from this major goal,\u201d said Beeman. \u201cThey will go to the mat in order to be able to protect themselves, to protect their national sovereignty and to protect the ideals of what they see as the revolution.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ultimately, said Beeman, any resolution will require a fundamental shift in approach. Without understanding Iran\u2019s historical and ideological perspective, diplomacy is unlikely to succeed, he stated.<\/p>\n

Source: Published without changes from American Community Media<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BySunita Sohrabji The economic damage from the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz may take years to undo,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7601,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-regular-column"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t